M.S. Applied Data Science - Capstone Chronicles 2025

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Figure 10 Iron Forecast in the next 10 years

The Iron forecast indicates a gentle upward trend in baseline levels from around 1,000 µg/L in 2025 to nearly 1,500 µg/L by 2035 superimposed with modest seasonal oscillations. Historical outliers (e.g., sampled values up to 400,000 µg/L) manifest in relatively wide confidence intervals, though the model dampens these extreme events in the forecast horizon. While California’s secondary MCL for iron is 300 µg/L, our projections imply that most systems will continue to report concentrations several times higher, especially during late summer mobilization. This persistence of high iron underscores the importance of corrosion control and mains flushing programs, as well as the potential for developing treatment strategies such as oxidation/coagulation or greensand filtration to address both chronic background levels and episodic surges.

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