M.S. Applied Data Science - Capstone Chronicles 2025

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Mapping Education & Disability Inequities in Poverty Across Illinois Communities Analyzing How Education and Disability Status Shape Economic Outcomes

Madeline Chang † Applied Data Science Master’s Program Shiley Marcos School of Engineering / University of San Diego madelinechang@sandiego.edu

Matt Ammirati Applied Data Science Master’s Program Shiley Marcos School of Engineering / University of San Diego mammirati@sandiego.edu

Gabriel Duffy Applied Data Science Master’s Program Shiley Marcos School of Engineering / University of San Diego gduffy@sandiego.edu

ABSTRACT Educational attainment is widely considered a pathway to economic mobility, yet disabled adults experience persistently higher poverty rates even when they achieve the same levels of schooling as non-disabled peers. This study examines how disability modifies the economic returns to education in Illinois by combining tract-level American Community Survey (ACS) estimates with individual level ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) records. Tract-level ACS data were used for exploratory spatial analysis to identify geographic patterns in poverty, disability prevalence, and education, revealing concentrated disadvantage in rural and post-industrial regions. To quantify compounding effects at the individual level, statistical modeling was performed using PUMS data, which contains the person-level attributes necessary to evaluate how disability interacts with education, work limitations, and demographic factors. Linear regression, logistic classification, and geographically weighted regression demonstrated that disability remains a strong positive predictor of poverty, even after controlling for education and employment. These results show that education alone does not eliminate the structural barriers disabled adults face, highlighting the need for targeted workforce and accessibility policies that align with ADA objectives. KEYWORDS Disability; Education; Poverty; Socioeconomic Inequality; Geographic Disparities; American Community Survey; Illinois; Applied Data Science

1 Introduction Educational attainment is one of the strongest predictors of economic stability in the United States. However, for many individuals with disabilities, the expected benefits of higher education — such as steady employment and income growth — often remain out of reach. While the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and related policies have improved physical accessibility and academic inclusion, major economic gaps persist. According to recent Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, employment among people with disabilities remains less than half that of the non disabled population, and poverty rates are nearly twice as high. Within Illinois, the problem mirrors the national picture. Despite widespread educational progress, certain communities continue to experience concentrated disadvantage among residents with disabilities. Understanding where and why educational gains fail to protect this population from poverty is critical for designing equitable workforce and social-support policies. This study uses tract-level ACS data to describe geographic patterns of poverty and disability, and employs person-level ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) records to model how education and disability jointly shape economic outcomes. Together, these sources reveal where education alone does not eliminate economic vulnerability for disabled adults across Illinois.

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