ADS Capstone Chronicles Revised

17

6.2.4 Visualizing Forecast

trends that could influence trading decisions. These metrics include:

Performance Visualizations, such as line and scatter plots, were created to compare the forecasted and actual values, providing a clear and intuitive picture of the model ’ s performance. These plots highlighted where the model succeeded and needed improvements, such as the discrepancies observed with BTC-USD. Visualizing the forecasted and actual values made it easy to identify areas where the model performed well and areas that required further refinement. While the model demonstrated strong forecasting capabilities for most cryptocurrencies, the inconsistencies observed with BTC-USD suggest areas for further refinement. This phase has provided valuable insights, highlighting the model’s potentia l to guide future improvements in the forecasting approach. In summary, the forecasting phase involved rigorous data engineering, model application, and evaluation, demonstrating the potential and limitations of the Ridge Regression model. These insights will inform the following steps to enhance forecasting accuracy. 7. Streamlit Application An application was developed based on exploratory data analysis and modeling findings to help newcomers to cryptocurrency trading understand basic metrics and trends and make more informed trading decisions. This application focuses on daily crypto prices and is not intended for trading at higher granularities, such as executing trades every 10 minutes. 7.0.1 Home Page The Home page discusses the application ’ s main objective and intended audience. About Metrics The second page, About Metrics, covers six key metrics to help users understand patterns and 7.0.2

- - -

Price Change

Volume

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) - Momentum - Volatility 7.0.3 Cryptocurrency Analysis The Crypto Analysis page displays a dashboard featuring each coin ’ s listed metrics. It allows filtering by specific coins and dates. For example, when filtered to Bitcoin from July 1, 2024, to July 8, 2024, the percentage change shows significant drops between the 1st and 4th of the month, a spike on the 5th and 6th, and then a notable drop on the 7th, indicating an overall downward trend for that week. The volume chart shows a spike between the 5th and the 8th, suggesting increased trading activity during this period. This activity is likely due to people buying Bitcoin as its price dropped steadily beforehand. This behavior aligns with the expectation that increased volume occurs as traders take advantage of lower prices. The RSI remains below 50, indicating a bearish market for this coin within the specified timeframe. However, the RSI dips below 30 between the 4th and 5th, suggesting the coin was oversold during this period. The MACD line, shown in pink, is below the signal line and exhibits a downward trend, indicating a bearish market. The 7-day momentum chart also reveals a downward trend, with a slight recovery on the 7th and 8th, consistent with the percentage change, which also increased on these dates.

84