ADS Capstone Chronicles Revised

2

evident by the fact only two teams have gone winless since 1983, there are organizations and coaches that experience success at a higher rate than others. The way a team is built can put them in a better position to succeed, which has a significant impact on their present as well as future. With this increase in success, players may garner bigger contracts when they hit free agency, and coaches will be retained at greater rates. Therefore, understanding the factors that contribute to team success is essential for maximizing player and organizational potential in the highly competitive NFL environment. 2.1 Problem Identification and Motivation In recent years, the NFL has spent more time and resources showcasing the process behind how general managers build out the roster. The NFL Draft is a growing event, as well as the workouts and meetings preceding it. The NFL Scouting Combine, for instance, has begun live streaming the entire event over several days, where players get the opportunity to display their athletic abilities before entering professional football. Data and interest are at an all-time high for the NFL, which allows fans greater insight into the factors that influence winning. Based on the fact a majority of the top teams in the NFL consist of the top statistically rated quarterbacks, we investigate the hypothesis that shifting roster building philosophies to favor the passing game as compared to the historical establishment of the running game will lead to greater regular season success. Building on this observation, we aim to investigate whether a strategic shift favoring passing game-oriented roster building over traditional emphasis on the running game correlates with greater regular-season success. 2.1.1 Rest imbalance has an impact on winning. In addition to exploration into winning strategies, we identify the scheduling imbalance that currently exists as opponents often have different amounts of rest leading into the game. One of the

core values of the league is for no team to have an inherent competitive advantage beyond their own actions. 2.2 Definition of Objectives Through statistical analysis run on the various factors as well as models to evaluate how predictable winning may become with the top factors, our models may be used to aid roster personnel construction as well as schematics to maximize the chances of winning more football games. Utilizing the correlations between in game factors and winning games, we will be able to provide NFL teams with knowledge that can change how rosters are built, change the breakdown of salary cap spending, and influence the run-pass gameplans. Both the NFL Draft and free agency strategies may be altered as a result of greater understanding of the most important underlying factors of winning in the NFL. 2.2.1 Adjustments to schedule imbalances. Exploring factors beyond winning strategies, we identify the scheduling imbalance that currently exists. Creating a balanced schedule where each team plays a uniform number of opponents coming off extra rest is imperative to keep the integrity of balance. 3 Literature Review (related works) The literature review section offers a thorough look at recent research and methodologies in predictive analytics applied to NFL games. Each study presents its own set of methods, techniques, and discoveries. By bringing these studies together, it becomes clear predictive modeling in NFL games involves a variety of approaches, spanning from traditional statistical methods like regression analysis to cutting-edge machine learning algorithms. This review lays the groundwork for grasping the present state of predictive analytics in NFL game analysis, highlighting opportunities for future research and improvement in this dynamic field.

29